Augmented Probability Simulation Methods for Non-cooperative Games
Assoc. Prof. Dr. Tahir Ekin
Quantitative Methods, McCoy College of Business
Texas State University
Nov 22, 1:40 p.m.
We present a comprehensive robust decision support framework with novel computational algorithms for decision makers in a non-cooperative sequential setup. Existing simulation based approaches such as Monte Carlo methods can be inefficient under certain conditions like in presence of a high number of decision alternatives and uncertain outcomes. Hence, we provide a novel augmented probability simulation alternative to solve non-cooperative sequential games. We cover approaches to approximate subgame perfect equilibria under common knowledge conditions, assess the robustness of such solutions and, finally, approximate adversarial risk analysis solutions when lacking common knowledge. The proposed approach can be especially beneficial in application domains such as cybersecurity and counter-terrorism.
Dr. Tahir Ekin is an Associate Professor of Quantitative Methods in McCoy College of Business, Texas State University. His areas of expertise include statistical and analytical applications in health care fraud assessment and decision modeling under uncertainty. His book on health care fraud analytics titled “Statistics and Health Care Fraud: How to Save Billions” has been recently published. His scholar work has appeared in a variety of academic journals including Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, International Statistical Review, Naval Research Logistics and Decision Analysis among others. He has been the recipient of Texas State University 2018 Presidential Distinction Award in Scholar Activities, and ASA/NISS y-Bis 2016 Best Paper Award. He has developed and taught courses in the areas of business statistics, optimization, data mining and analytics. Dr. Ekin holds a Ph.D. in Decision Sciences from The George Washington University, and a B.S. in Industrial Engineering from Bilkent University, Turkey. He is an elected member of International Statistical Institute and currently serves as Vice President of the International Society of Business and Industrial Statisticians.