IR Seminar: “Rebel Strategies and the Prospect for Peace”, Xiaoyan Qiu, 5:30PM December 21 (EN)

Date: 21 December 2020, Monday
Time: 17:30-18:45

Topic: Job Talk by Xiaoyan (Christy) Qiu
Time: Dec 21, 2020 17:30

Zoom Meeting
To request the event link, please contact to the department

“Rebel Strategies and the Prospect for Peace.”
Xiaoyan (Christy) Qiu
University of Rochester, USA

Abstract: “Rebel strategies vary significantly within conflicts over time, from guerrilla to conventional tactics. Why do rebels switch between different fighting strategies? How does the transition affect civil war negotiations? I develop a model of rebel-government negotiation in which rebels choose fighting strategies throughout a multi-period war. The analysis yields two main results. First, rebels switch from guerrilla to conventional tactics after sufficiently wearing down state power. The expectation of gaining strength delays the transition. Second, the potential to switch between different fighting strategies hinders peace negotiations and prolongs civil wars. I identify generic conditions under which no peace is feasible no matter how belligerents negotiate. These conditions characterize typical early stages of a rebellion, thereby explaining the lack of serious negotiations early on.”